The Money Numbers Calendar: CPI, Jobs Report, FOMC, GDP — What Each Release Means for Your Wallet
Every few days a government report moves interest rates, markets or next year’s Social Security check. Here is when each one lands through December 2026 and the one thing it changes for you.
📑 On this page ▼
📐 Figures verified Sep 28, 2026: release dates from the BLS and BEA 2026 schedules and the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar; CPI from the BLS release of Sep 11, 2026 (August 2026 data) and the Fed's target range, both bound to our figures registry; jobs data from the August Employment Situation (Sep 4, 2026). Times are Eastern. How we check numbers →
Four releases do most of the work: CPI (Oct 14, Nov 10, Dec 10), the jobs report (Oct 2, Nov 6, Dec 4), the Fed's rate decisions (Oct 28 and Dec 9), and GDP with the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge (Oct 29 and Nov 25). CPI sets Social Security raises and I bond rates; the Fed moves what your cards and savings pay.
Numbers That Matter
| Figure | Amount | Source | Verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI-U, 12-month change to August 2026 | 3.4%; next release Oct 14, 2026 | BLS CPI | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Core CPI (excluding food and energy) | 2.4% | BLS CPI | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Unemployment rate, August 2026 | 4.1%, with payrolls up 162,000 | BLS Employment Situation | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Average hourly earnings, August 2026 | $37.75, up 3.1% in a year | BLS Employment Situation | Sep 28, 2026 |
| PCE price index, July 2026 | Up 3.7% in a year (core 3.3%); August data due Sep 30 | BEA | Sep 27, 2026 |
| Federal funds target range | 3.75%–4.00%; next decision Oct 28, 2026 | FOMC statement, Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Real GDP, third quarter 2026 | Advance estimate due Oct 29, 2026 | BEA release schedule | Sep 28, 2026 |
The Next 90 Days
| Date (ET) | Release | What it changes for you |
|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 30, 8:30 a.m. | PCE and personal income for August; second-quarter GDP (third estimate) with BEA’s annual revisions | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and revisions that can redraw recent growth |
| Fri Oct 2, 8:30 a.m. | Jobs report for September | Hiring, unemployment and wage growth: your best read on job security and raise leverage |
| Wed Oct 14, 8:30 a.m. | CPI and Real Earnings for September; SSA announces the 2027 COLA | Sets next year's Social Security raise and completes the inflation half of November's I bond rate |
| Wed Oct 28, 2:00 p.m. | Fed rate decision | Any change flows to prime-based card and home equity rates within a billing cycle or two |
| Thu Oct 29, 8:30 a.m. | GDP advance estimate for the third quarter; PCE for September | The first read on third-quarter growth and inflation |
| Sun Nov 1 | New I bond rate | The rate for bonds bought through April 30 |
| Tue Nov 3, 10:00 a.m. | Job openings and quits (JOLTS) for September | When openings and quits run high, workers who switch jobs usually have more leverage |
| Fri Nov 6, 8:30 a.m. | Jobs report for October | Same as above, one month on |
| Tue Nov 10, 8:30 a.m. | CPI and Real Earnings for October | Whether prices are cooling or heating up into year-end |
| Fri Nov 13, 8:30 a.m. | Producer Price Index for October | What businesses pay, an early hint of where store prices head |
| Early November | NY Fed Household Debt and Credit, third quarter | Delinquency trends for cards, auto loans and student loans |
| Wed Nov 25, 8:30 a.m. | GDP second estimate for the third quarter; PCE for October | Revised growth, and the inflation reading the Fed watches most |
| Tue Dec 1, 10:00 a.m. | JOLTS for October | Labor-market leverage, one month on |
| Fri Dec 4, 8:30 a.m. | Jobs report for November | The last jobs report before the Fed’s December decision |
| Wed Dec 9, 2:00 p.m. | Fed rate decision with new economic projections | The officials' rate projections show where they expect rates in 2027 |
| Thu Dec 10, 8:30 a.m. | CPI and Real Earnings for November | The last inflation reading of the year |
| Tue Dec 15, 8:30 a.m. | Producer Price Index for November | Pipeline price pressure heading into 2027 |
| Every Thursday, 8:30 a.m. | Initial jobless claims (Labor Department) | The earliest weekly sign of layoffs picking up or easing |
What Each Release Means for Your Wallet
The Consumer Price Index (BLS). The monthly price change for a basket of what households buy. Prices rose 3.4% over the 12 months to August 2026, and 2.4% excluding food and energy. CPI sets more of your money than any other number: Social Security's COLA comes from CPI-W for July through September, the I bond rate from the CPI-U over six months, and tax brackets and many benefit limits from a chained version of the index. The next report is Oct 14, 2026. Which inflation number matters explains the versions.
The jobs report (BLS Employment Situation). Two surveys in one release: payroll employment from businesses and the unemployment rate from households. In August, payrolls rose 162,000, unemployment held at 4.1% and average hourly pay rose 3.1% over the year. The two prior months get revised each time, and in August those revisions added 55,000 jobs, so treat any single month as provisional.
PCE and GDP (BEA). The personal consumption expenditures price index is the inflation measure behind the Fed's 2% goal, and it covers more spending than the CPI, including health care paid on your behalf. GDP comes in three estimates a month apart for each quarter; the first gets the headlines, and later ones can move it a lot.
Fed decisions (FOMC). The target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, and the next decision is Oct 28, 2026. The prime rate sits 3 points above the top of the range, so card, home equity and other prime-based rates move almost immediately; savings and CD yields follow more slowly. Rate benchmarks explained shows which rates follow which.
The smaller releases. JOLTS counts openings, quits and layoffs; the Producer Price Index tracks what businesses pay; weekly jobless claims are the fastest layoff signal; and the New York Fed's quarterly household debt report shows how many borrowers are falling behind.
How to Read a Release Without the Noise
- Use the 12-month change for planning and the monthly change for direction. A 0.4% monthly rise in the CPI, repeated for a year, compounds to about 4.9%.
- Check core against headline. Food and energy swing hard, so core shows the underlying trend; your budget still pays the headline.
- Expect revisions. Jobs and GDP numbers are routinely revised, sometimes by enough to change the story.
- Markets react to surprises, not levels. A hot number that forecasters expected moves little; a mild one that beats expectations can move rates a lot.
- Seasonally adjusted numbers compare months fairly; unadjusted ones are what the 12-month CPI change and most contracts use.
Worked Example: One Quarter-Point Move
- A $6,000 card balance at a prime-based rate: a quarter-point increase adds about $15 a year in interest.
- A $20,000 home equity line: about $50 a year more.
- $30,000 in a high-yield savings account: if the bank passes the whole increase through, about $75 a year more in interest.
- Net: this household comes out about $10 a year ahead, because its savings are larger than its variable-rate debt. Flip the balances and the same move costs money.
An illustration. It assumes the full quarter point passes through to every rate; savings yields often move later and by less.
Decision Rules
If this, then that
- If you get Social Security → October 14 sets next year's raise; budget with the real number.
- If you're weighing I bonds → the September CPI on October 14 lets you estimate November's rate before you buy.
- If you carry variable-rate debt → re-check your rate after October 28 and December 9.
- If you're job hunting or asking for a raise → the jobs report and JOLTS show how much leverage workers have.
- If you're about to lock a mortgage or CD rate → know when the CPI and jobs reports land; rates can jump that morning.
Mistakes to avoid
- Reacting to a single month's number.
- Comparing a monthly change with an annual one.
- Ignoring revisions to jobs and GDP.
- Assuming the Fed changes rates at every meeting.
- Trading around release times, when prices swing the most.
Related: did your raise beat inflation? puts the CPI to work on your pay; what a Fed hike changes follows a decision through your accounts; and the annual money calendar lists the deadlines and enrollment windows around these dates. More guides are in the Economy, Rates & Inflation hub.